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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2017-08-05 10:38:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Aug 2017 08:38:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Aug 2017 09:23:02 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-08-05 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 The center of the depression moved over Socorro Island, Mexico between 0400 and 0500 UTC. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located in that island reported a well defined wind shift associated with the circulation and 20 to 25 kt winds in gusts. A recent ASCAT pass shows a few vectors of 30 kt, and this will be the intensity in this advisory. The depression has been decapitated by strong upper-level easterly winds, and the low-level and mid-level centers are now separated by at least 230 n mi. There are only a few patches of deep convection left. Since the shear environment is forecast to persist or even increase, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a remnant low in about 12 hours or so. The low-level swirl associated with the center of the depression is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt around the periphery of a subtropical ridge. Since no changes in the steering pattern is forecast by global models, this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation in a day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 19.2N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 20.0N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 20.6N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 21.2N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112017)
2017-08-05 10:33:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION CROSSED SOCORRO ISLAND MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 the center of Eleven-E was located near 19.2, -111.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 4
2017-08-05 10:33:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 ...DEPRESSION CROSSED SOCORRO ISLAND MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 111.4W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 111.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue until Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-08-05 10:33:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 05 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050833 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112017 0900 UTC SAT AUG 05 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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