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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-08-17 22:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 172048 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined circulation in the low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles, with the center near a cluster of sheared, but strong, convection. The aircraft data suggest that the maximum winds are near 35 kt and that the central pressure is near 1004 mb. Based on these data, the disturbance is upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey. The initial motion is 270/16. There is no change to the forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the system should steer it quickly just north of due west through the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the system through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea in 12-24 h, into the central Caribbean by 48-72 h, and to the western Caribbean by 96-120 h. One adjustment is that the 96-120 h points have been nudged a little southward in response to a shift in the guidance, and thus now lie closer to Central America than on the previous forecast. The forecast track again lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and the various consensus models. The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should continue through at least 72 h. The conflicting forecast scenarios alluded to in the previous advisory remain, with the SHIPS and LGEM models still showing steady intensification while the GFS and ECMWF models still forecast degeneration to an easterly wave over the central Caribbean. The new intensity forecast again follows the trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it remains on the low side of the guidance envelope out of respect for the GFS/ECMWF. The 96-120 h intensities have been decreased a little due to the forecast track showing more land interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.0N 55.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.1N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 13.4N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 13.7N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 14.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 17.0N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-08-17 22:48:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 172048 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DOMINICA 34 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 34 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 35(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 31(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SAINT VINCENT 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 4 25(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GRENADA 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-17 22:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM HARVEY... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 17 the center of Harvey was located near 13.0, -55.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 2
2017-08-17 22:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 172047 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 ...HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM HARVEY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 55.8W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 55.8 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday. RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-08-17 22:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 172047 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.8W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.8W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.1N 58.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.4N 61.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.7N 65.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.0N 68.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 55.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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