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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-19 04:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:39:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:39:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-08-19 04:33:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 Microwave and conventional geostationary satellite images indicate that Harvey's center is still displaced to the east of a persistent cluster of deep convection due to about 15 kt of northeasterly shear. With no notable changes in the cyclone's structure since the last advisory, the maximum wind estimate remains 35 kt, which is in line with the latest Dvorak CI numbers. Recent microwave fixes suggest that Harvey's center may have slowed down or wobbled northward temporarily, and the 12-hour motion estimate is a slightly slower 275/16 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a swift westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 48 hours. Once Harvey moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 72 hours, it will reach the western edge of the ridge, and it will likely slow down and gain some latitude due to a cut-off low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although the track guidance envelope has shifted slightly northward on this cycle, especially around the 72-hour period, there are no significant changes from six hours ago. Northeasterly or northerly shear is forecast to continue for the next 36 hours or so, which should prevent significant strengthening while Harvey moves westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. By 48 hours, the vertical shear over the cyclone drops drastically, but the system's fast motion could still limit the amount of intensification that will occur. The best opportunity for strengthening would likely be around day 3 when Harvey begins to slow down as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The updated NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one during the first 48 hours, and it was nudged a little lower at 72 hours to fall closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model and the ICON intensity consensus. A lot of uncertainty remains, however, since models like SHIPS and HWRF bring Harvey near or to hurricane intensity before it reaches land while the GFS and ECMWF continue to weaken the circulation while it moves across the Caribbean Sea. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 13.7N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 14.0N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 14.3N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 14.8N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 16.5N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 18.0N 89.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 24/0000Z 19.0N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-19 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 18 the center of Harvey was located near 13.7, -64.1 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 7
2017-08-19 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 190233 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 ...HARVEY CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 64.1W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ENE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of eastern Central America and northern South America should monitor the progress of Harvey. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 64.1 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). An even faster motion toward the west is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela. Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao on Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-08-19 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 190233 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 64.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 64.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 63.2W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.0N 66.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.3N 70.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.8N 78.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 84.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 92.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 64.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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