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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-08-19 10:43:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190842 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery shows the partially exposed center of Harvey on the eastern edge of a large area of deep convection. While the center is closer to the convection than a few hours ago, cirrus clouds be clearly seen moving from northeast to southwest across the system; an indication of the persistent shear. Satellite estimates suggest the maximum winds of Harvey remain 35 kt. The storm has picked up some forward speed with a recent motion estimate of 275/18. A low- to mid-level ridge extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the ridge weakens across the Gulf of Mexico due to a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen there on water vapor images. This steering flow change should cause Harvey to slow down and turn a little more to the west-northwest in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, with an even slower motion forecast for Harvey in the Bay of Campeche. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Harvey should be moving into a more conducive environment for strengthening early next week since the strong northeasterly shear that has been affecting the cyclone is forecast by almost all of the guidance to weaken within about 24 hours. In a few days, most of the global models show a favorable upper-level environment for intensification, and Harvey could be near hurricane strength between the 72 hour forecast period and landfall. There has been little change to the guidance so the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, close to the model consensus. However, with a weak storm moving so quickly across the central Caribbean, one always has to be careful of the system opening up into a wave. This is a plausible alternative scenario still suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 13.8N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 14.0N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 14.3N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 14.6N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 17.0N 86.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 18.3N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 24/0600Z 19.3N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-19 10:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY IN THE ABC ISLANDS FROM HARVEY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 13.8, -65.9 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 8
2017-08-19 10:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 190841 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY IN THE ABC ISLANDS FROM HARVEY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 65.9W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ENE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of eastern Central America and northern South America should monitor the progress of Harvey. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 65.9 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Locally heavy rain could occur today over Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-08-19 10:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 190841 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 18(29) 1(30) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 4(33) X(33) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 8
2017-08-19 10:41:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 190841 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 65.9W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 65.9W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.0N 68.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N 72.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N 76.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 18.3N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.3N 93.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 65.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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