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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-18 04:40:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 02:40:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 03:25:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-08-18 04:31:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180231 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 Since an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft departed the storm a few hours ago, the cloud pattern of Harvey hasn't changed much. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 30 kt, and based on the earlier aircraft measurements the current intensity is held at 35 kt. The storm is in a moderate easterly shear environment, which should allow only slow strengthening for the next couple of days. After that, the dynamical models indicate that a decrease in shear should occur. As noted earlier, however, the GFS and ECMWF global models do not show strengthening of Harvey and in fact practically dissipate it during the forecast period. This suggests something unfavorable in the environment besides shear ahead of the system, perhaps some drier air or subsidence. The official intensity forecast shows modest strengthening and is generally close to the model consensus which includes the statistical/dynamical guidance and the regional hurricane models (that do show some strengthening). The motion continues westward or 270/16. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory package. Harvey should remain embedded in the flow on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge throughout most of the forecast period, which should steer the system on a continued westward track. Near the end of period, the guidance suggests a slightly more northward motion with some deceleration. The official forecast track is near the dynamical model consensus and very close to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.0N 57.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 13.2N 59.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 13.6N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 13.9N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 14.1N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 14.8N 78.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 16.0N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 17.5N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-08-18 04:31:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 180231 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CURACAO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARTINIQUE 34 3 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAINT LUCIA 34 6 34(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) SAINT VINCENT 34 3 21(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BARBADOS 34 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-18 04:30:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 17 the center of Harvey was located near 13.0, -57.4 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 3
2017-08-18 04:30:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180230 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 ...HARVEY NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 57.4W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 57.4 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday. RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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