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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-08-19 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 190233 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 17(32) X(32) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-18 22:43:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 20:43:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 21:25:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-08-18 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 182036 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 Again, there has been little change in the structure of Harvey, with the low-level center near the eastern edge of a strong, but poorly organized, convective area. Earlier reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included winds suggesting an increased intensity. However, due to uncertainties in how representative these measurements were, no appreciable change in the central pressure, and no improvement in the structure, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The initial motion is 275/18. A strong low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion for the next 3 days or so, with the system moving from the eastern to the western Caribbean Sea during this time. After 72 h, a west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected when Harvey passes near or over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and eastern Mexico. The new forecast track is a little faster then the previous track, but there were only minor changes in the direction. It should be noted that there is considerable uncertainty about how far north Harvey might get over the Bay of Campeche, with several of the large-scale models not bringing the center back over the water on the latest runs. The current shear should persist for about the next 48 h, and thus the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow strengthening during this time. However, the GFS and ECMWF again forecast Harvey to degenerate to an open wave during this time, and the rest of the intensity guidance has trended toward a weaker cyclone. This lowers the confidence in intensification. After 48 h, conditions appear more favorable for strengthening, with the main uncertainty being how much land Harvey will encounter. The intensity forecast will again call for a peak intensity of 60 kt in 72 h, followed by weakening due to land interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 13.4N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-18 22:35:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 18 the center of Harvey was located near 13.4, -62.9 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 6
2017-08-18 22:35:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 182035 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 ...HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 62.9W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of eastern Central American and northern South America should monitor the progress of Harvey. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and through the central Caribbean Sea Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela. Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao on Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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