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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-08-18 22:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 182035 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 5(32) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 31(39) 1(40) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) X(19) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-08-18 22:34:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 182034 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 62.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-18 19:49:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 17:49:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 15:25:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-18 19:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 18 the center of Harvey was located near 13.2, -62.1 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 5A
2017-08-18 19:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 181747 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 200 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 ...HARVEY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 62.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of France had discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique. The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. The Government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of Harvey. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 62.1 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move away from the Windward Islands and through the eastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon and tonight. It should then move into the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Locally gusty winds across the Windward Islands should diminish this afternoon. RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts across parts of the Leeward and Windward Islands from Guadeloupe southward to Grenada. These additional rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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