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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 28
2020-09-14 04:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 140230 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RENE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 47.9W ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue tonight. A faster motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin Monday and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low on Monday, and dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2020-09-14 04:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 140230 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-09-14 04:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 140230 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 47.9W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 47.9W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 47.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.9N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.2N 50.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 47.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression Rene Graphics
2020-09-13 22:45:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 20:45:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 20:45:21 GMT
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-09-13 22:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 132041 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Rene continues to produce occasional small bursts of deep convection, most recently to the north of its surface center. Both the TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications indicated that convection at 18Z was insufficient to classify the system, an indication that the few pop up thunderstorms are not sufficiently organized to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. That said, convection has increased a little since that time and there is a possibility that deep convection could increase further this evening. While Rene is still a tropical depression for the moment, if its convection does not persist, it could become a remnant low as soon as tonight. Only very small changes were made to the NHC track and intensity forecasts. Rene's forward speed has continued to slow down since this morning. The shallow cyclone should make a westward and then southwestward turn during the next day or two, steered by a building low-level ridge to the north. Regardless of its exact status, Rene will probably continue to produce only a few small disorganized bursts of convection for the next few days while its circulation gradually spins down. Surrounding dry air and large-scale subsidence will likely prevent the redevelopment of more signifcant shower or thunderstorm activity. Most of the dynamical guidance indicates that Rene will open into a trough of low pressure within about 72 h, if not sooner and the NHC forecast shows likewise. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 27.3N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 27.4N 48.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0600Z 26.9N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 26.3N 50.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 25.7N 52.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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