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Tropical Depression Rene Graphics

2020-09-13 11:08:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 09:08:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 09:32:48 GMT

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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 25

2020-09-13 10:59:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 404 WTNT43 KNHC 130858 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Rene is producing a round of disorganized convection at this time, with the convection now displaced to the east of the center by increasing west-northwesterly vertical shear. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on a combination of satellite intensity estimates and continuity from the previous advisory. The strong shear and a dry environment should lead to Rene degenerating to a remnant low pressure area between 24-36 h, with the global models in good agreement that the remnant low should weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. The initial motion is 325/12. A blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest or Rene during the next day or two, causing the cyclone to slow down and then turn westward. After that time, a west-southwestward motion is expected as Rene or its remnants are steered by a combination of the ridge and the circulation of Tropical Depression 20 to the southeast. There is little change to either the track guidance or the forecast track from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 26.2N 47.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 27.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0600Z 27.2N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1800Z 26.7N 51.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2020-09-13 10:59:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 130858 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Depression Rene (AT3/AL182020)

2020-09-13 10:58:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...RENE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 13 the center of Rene was located near 26.2, -47.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 25

2020-09-13 10:58:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 130858 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RENE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 47.1W ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 47.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected later today, and a slow westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the system is forecast to move west-southwestward. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Rene should slowly weaken over the next few days and is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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