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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-09-12 10:44:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 120844 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Deep convection associated with Rene appears to have lost some organization overnight. Although there have been several pulsating bursts of convection overnight, the convection that was persistent over the center during the evening is now confined to the southern portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 35 kt, but this could be generous. ASCAT data later this morning should help to determine if Rene is still a topical storm. Mid-level dry air appears to be the primary reason why Rene has struggled to strengthen over the past few days, and although the shear is expected to remain low today, the dry air is likely to prevent strengthening. On Sunday, Rene is forecast to approach an area of strong west-northwesterly flow aloft, and this increase is shear is likely to cause the cyclone to weaken. Most of the global models continue to significantly weaken Rene early next week, and both the ECMWF and GFS suggest that the cyclone will degenerate into a trough of low pressure by days 4 or 5. The NHC forecast continues to maintain Rene as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period, but if the current trends it is becoming unlikely that Rene will survive as a tropical cyclone for the entire 5-day period. Rene has turned northwestward and is now moving at 305/13 kt. A northwestward motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic should continue for another 12 to 24 hours, but by late Sunday Rene is forecast to slow down as ridge of high pressure builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone. Later in the period, Rene is forecast to turn westward and then southwestward under the influence of the building ridge. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and no significant changes to the official forecaster were required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 22.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.7N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 25.4N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 26.6N 47.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 27.2N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 27.1N 48.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 24.7N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-09-12 10:44:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 120844 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-12 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE NO LONGER FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Rene was located near 22.5, -43.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 21
2020-09-12 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 120843 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...RENE NO LONGER FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 43.5W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 43.5 West. Rene is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A slower northwest to north-northwest motion is expected on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the weekend, but some weakening is predicted to occur early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-09-12 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 120843 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 43.5W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 43.5W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 42.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.7N 44.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.4N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.6N 47.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.2N 47.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.1N 48.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 24.7N 55.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 43.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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