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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2019-09-22 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 220237 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 37(45) 11(56) X(56) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

2019-09-22 04:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 21 the center of Jerry was located near 24.1, -66.3 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 19

2019-09-22 04:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 66.3W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 66.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected Sunday and Monday, followed by a turn toward the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 19

2019-09-22 04:37:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220237 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 66.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 66.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 66.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.4N 67.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.7N 67.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.6N 66.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 36.8N 60.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 40.8N 54.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 66.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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