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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112019)
2019-09-17 18:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING... As of 12:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Eleven was located near 28.7, -95.4 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 1
2019-09-17 18:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171658 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 95.4W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Sargent to Port Bolivar. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent to Port Bolivar A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move farther inland tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves onshore. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area this afternoon and evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-09-17 18:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1700 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 171658 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112019 1700 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 1700Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 6 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 7 2( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GALVESTON TX 34 30 2(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) HOUSTON TX 34 24 6(30) 2(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) HOUSTON TX 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 19 9(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 280N 950W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 17 2(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MATAGORDA TX 34 13 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PORT O CONNOR 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-09-17 18:57:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1700 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 171657 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112019 1700 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM SARGENT TO PORT BOLIVAR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TO PORT BOLIVAR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 95.4W AT 17/1700Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 95.4W AT 17/1700Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 29.4N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 30.1N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.7N 95.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 31.3N 96.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 95.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2019-09-17 16:49:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 14:49:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 14:49:26 GMT
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