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Tropical Depression Imelda Graphics
2019-09-18 01:39:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 23:39:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:34:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 2A
2019-09-18 01:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 172338 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...IMELDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 95.4W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from Sargent to Port Bolivar, Texas, has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Imelda was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 95.4 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north- northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Imelda will continue to move farther inland across eastern Texas tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Imelda is expected to continue to weaken as it moves farther inland. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the Houston and Galveston areas. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
2019-09-17 22:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:36:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:36:09 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-17 22:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 The organization of the depression has changed little today. Bands of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a generally low vertical wind shear environment. These factors favor strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous official foreast was needed. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-09-17 22:34:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 243 FONT15 KNHC 172034 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 2(29) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 1(33) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 1(25) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 1(23) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 1(31) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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