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Tropical Depression Imelda Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-18 04:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180248 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Imelda Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 The center of the tropical cyclone continues to move farther inland over southeast Texas, with a motion estimate of 360/5 kt. Earlier surface observations along the coast indicated that the intensity had dropped below tropical storm strength, so the Tropical Storm Warning was discontinued. Although it has weakened, slow-moving Imelda will remain a rainfall/flood threat for at least the next couple of days. This is the last NHC advisory on Imelda. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and Galveston areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 29.8N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1200Z 30.5N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/0000Z 31.2N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1200Z 31.8N 95.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0000Z 32.7N 95.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Imelda (AT1/AL112019)
2019-09-18 04:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IMELDA MOVING FARTHER INLAND... ...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Imelda was located near 29.8, -95.5 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 3
2019-09-18 04:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180248 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Imelda Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...IMELDA MOVING FARTHER INLAND... ...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 95.5W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Imelda was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Imelda will move over eastern Texas through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system should become a remnant low by late Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the Houston and Galveston areas. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Imelda. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Imelda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-09-18 04:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 180248 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Imelda Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-09-18 04:47:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 95.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 95.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 30.5N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.2N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 31.8N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.7N 95.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 95.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IMELDA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 5 AM EDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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