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Summary for Remnants of Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-29 04:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 28 the center of Kirk was located near 15.1, -65.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Remnants of Kirk Public Advisory Number 21
2018-09-29 04:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 832 WTNT32 KNHC 290241 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Kirk Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 ...KIRK BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 65.8W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Kirk were located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h), and the wave is expected to continue moving westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the east of the wave axis. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Kirk are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches across St. Croix and eastern Puerto Rico overnight through Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Remnants of Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2018-09-29 04:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 767 FONT12 KNHC 290241 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF KIRK WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BERG
Remnants of Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 21
2018-09-29 04:41:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 269 WTNT22 KNHC 290241 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 65.8W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 65.8W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 65.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-09-28 22:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 981 WTNT42 KNHC 282035 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 Kirk is barely meeting the criteria for a tropical cyclone. The small low-level center is still exposed well to the west of most of the deep convection. The last fix from the earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission found that the cyclone was still closed, but the maximum winds had decreased to near 35 kt. Since it seems likely that winds of this magnitude are still occuring in the convection to the east of Kirk, the system is maintained as a tropical storm for this advisory. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled for tonight, and it should give a better estimate of the intensity of Kirk, and if the cyclone still has a well-defined surface circulation. No significant changes have been made to the track or intensity forecasts. Kirk is expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the next 12 hours or so while weakening due to the continued effects of strong westerly wind shear. By tomorrow morning, the cyclone will likely have degenerated into a trough of low pressure. Even though Kirk is weakening, heavy rains are expected over St Croix and eastern Puerto Rico during the next day or two while Kirk or its remnants pass to the south of those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 14.7N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 15.3N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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