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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)

2018-09-28 04:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF KIRK CROSSES ST. LUCIA AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVERNIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 27 the center of Kirk was located near 13.8, -61.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2018-09-28 04:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 628 FONT12 KNHC 280246 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUADELOUPE 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 9 14(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) DOMINICA 34 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MARTINIQUE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT LUCIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT VINCENT 34 56 X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 17

2018-09-28 04:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 608 WTNT32 KNHC 280246 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 ...CENTER OF KIRK CROSSES ST. LUCIA AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 61.4W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM W OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSW OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located over the eastern Caribbean Sea near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 61.4 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) but is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion by early Friday and then increase in speed into the weekend. On the forecast track, Kirk's center will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the next couple of days. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Kirk is forecast to become a tropical depression Friday night, and degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) mainly to the east of the center. A station at Fond-denis-Cadet in the higher terrain on Martinique recently reported a wind gust to 68 mph (110 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions of the warning area and should continue to spread across the remainder of the warning area overnight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area overnight. Locally higher winds are likely atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 17

2018-09-28 04:45:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 268 WTNT22 KNHC 280245 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 61.4W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 61.4W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.3N 63.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.9N 65.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.3N 68.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 61.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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