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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-28 01:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF KIRK APPROACHING ST. LUCIA... ...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS BARBADOS... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 27 the center of Kirk was located near 13.9, -60.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 16A
2018-09-28 01:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 657 WTNT32 KNHC 272355 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 800 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 ...CENTER OF KIRK APPROACHING ST. LUCIA... ...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS BARBADOS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 60.7W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just east of St. Lucia near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 60.7 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west- northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move across the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area during the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected while the center of Kirk moves through the Lesser Antilles. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Kirk is forecast to become a tropical depression Friday night, and degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area overnight. Locally higher winds are possible atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-27 22:39:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Sep 2018 20:39:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Sep 2018 21:22:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-09-27 22:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 295 WTNT42 KNHC 272035 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 Kirk remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed low-level center located to the west of the main convective mass. There has been some redevelopment of deep convection just northeast of the center this afternoon, but much of the convection is located well east and southeast of the center. Despite the satellite presentation, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kirk through early this afternoon continued to find winds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Another reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to fly into the storm late this afternoon and evening. The strong westerly shear that is currently affecting the tropical cyclone is forecast to increase over the next day or so, and Kirk is expected to weaken as the low- and mid-level centers decouple even further. Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression within 36 hours, and is likely to become an open trough in 2 to 3 days when the system reaches the central Caribbean Sea. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various intensity aids, and the global models which show weakening and dissipation of the system within 72 hours. Kirk is moving west-northwestward or 290 degrees at 12 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge located over the southwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Kirk west-northwestward to westward during the next couple of days. The updated NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance, and is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should bear in mind that, although Kirk has become less organized over the past 24 hours, heavy rainfall and winds are still occurring over the eastern portion of the circulation. These winds and rains are still likely to spread westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning area later this evening through early Friday. Higher winds are especially likely over elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 14.2N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 14.6N 62.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 15.3N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 15.8N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 16.1N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-09-27 22:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 292 FONT12 KNHC 272035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 9 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) AVES 34 4 30(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) AVES 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 43 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MARTINIQUE 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) MARTINIQUE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) SAINT VINCENT 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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