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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-28 07:40:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 05:40:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 03:22:01 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-28 07:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Sep 28 the center of Kirk was located near 13.3, -62.0 with movement WSW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 17A
2018-09-28 07:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 312 WTNT32 KNHC 280539 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 200 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 62.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located over the eastern Caribbean Sea near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 62.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), but the cyclone should resume a west to west-northwestward motion later today with an increase in speed into the weekend. On the forecast track, Kirk's center, or its remnants, will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the next few days. Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Kirk is forecast to become a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) mainly to the east of the center. Barbados has been reporting tropical storm force winds during the past couple of hours. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions of the warning area and should continue to spread across the remainder of the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during he next several hours. Locally higher winds are likely atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches today and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-28 04:48:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 02:48:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 03:22:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-09-28 04:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 097 WTNT42 KNHC 280247 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 Satellite images, radar data, aircraft data, and surface observations all indicate that Kirk's center made landfall on St. Lucia around 0030 UTC. However, that fact is of minimal consequence since most of the inclement weather is displaced more than 60 n mi to the east of the center due to continued 30-40 kt of westerly shear. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Kirk, and SFMR winds within the convection to the east still appear to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Since the shear affecting Kirk is not expected to abate during the next couple of days, the storm's maximum winds are forecast to gradually decrease, as is shown by all of the intensity guidance. In fact, the global models continue to insist that Kirk's circulation will open up into a trough, possibly within 24-36 hours. To maintain continuity with the previous forecast, the new NHC intensity forecast continues to show Kirk weakening to a tropical depression in 36 hours but then shows dissipation by 48 hours. Kirk's center has been moving south of due west during the past 6-12 hours, possibly due to some interaction with the mountains of St. Lucia, and the initial motion estimate is 260/10 kt. Once the center moves farther from the island, however, it is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion and increase in speed a bit as it comes under the influence of stronger ridging to its north. The NHC official forecast follows the general trend shown by the track guidance, and at least speed-wise, it is very close to the previous forecast and the HCCA model. However, given the recent motion of the center, the new forecast is nudged southward and lies south of the most reliable track models and consensus aids. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to bear in mind that, although Kirk has become less organized over the past 24 hours, heavy rainfall and winds are still occurring over the eastern portion of the circulation. These winds and rains are still likely to spread westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning area through early Friday. Higher winds are especially likely over elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 13.8N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 14.3N 63.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 14.9N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 15.3N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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