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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 15A
2018-09-27 19:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 868 WTNT32 KNHC 271731 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 200 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 ...KIRK ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 59.9W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF BARBADOS ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 59.9 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move across the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area by this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area in a few hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in a few hours. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-27 16:55:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Sep 2018 14:55:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Sep 2018 15:22:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-09-27 16:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 451 WTNT42 KNHC 271452 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 Increasing vertical shear is having a notable influence on the structure of Kirk, as visible satellite imagery shows that the low-level center of the cyclone is now exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. Nonetheless, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters still found strong winds in that convection. In fact, based on SFMR and flight-level winds from the Hurricane Hunters, the advisory intensity of 45 kt may be a conservative estimate. With the increasing vertical decoupling of the vortex and even stronger shear associated with upper-level westerlies over the Caribbean Sea, weakening is likely over the next couple of days. Kirk should degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, if not sooner. The official forecast is close to the multi-model intensity consensus, IVCN. The storm continues moving west-northwestward, with a current motion estimate of 285/13 kt. A mid-level high pressure area just to the east of Florida is likely to steer Kirk on a west-northwestward to westward course for the next few days. Some further slowing of forward speed is expected as the high weakens slightly. The NHC track forecast is very close to the latest HFIP corrected consensus prediction. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should bear in mind that, although Kirk is becoming disorganized, strong winds are still occurring over the eastern portion of the circulation. These winds are still likely to spread westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning area later today. Higher winds are especially likely over elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 13.8N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 14.3N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 14.9N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 15.5N 65.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 15.9N 67.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-09-27 16:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 424 FONT12 KNHC 271452 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AVES 34 X 13(13) 12(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) DOMINICA 34 15 20(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MARTINIQUE 34 38 23(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) MARTINIQUE 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 24 18(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) SAINT VINCENT 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARBADOS 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-09-27 16:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 356 WTNT22 KNHC 271451 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 59.3W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 59.3W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 58.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.3N 61.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.9N 63.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 65.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N 67.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 59.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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