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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-28 22:35:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 20:35:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Sep 2018 21:21:59 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-28 22:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 28 the center of Kirk was located near 14.7, -64.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 20
2018-09-28 22:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 841 WTNT32 KNHC 282034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 ...KIRK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 64.7W ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM W OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 64.7 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated tonight, and Kirk will likely degenerate into a trough of low pressure on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure indicated by the hurricane hunter plane was 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible over the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands today. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands through tonight. Elsewhere, across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches tonight through Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-09-28 22:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 852 FONT12 KNHC 282034 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 20
2018-09-28 22:33:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 238 WTNT22 KNHC 282033 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 64.7W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 64.7W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.3N 66.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 64.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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