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Tropical Depression Laura Forecast Discussion Number 33
2020-08-28 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280234 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Laura Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Laura has continued to spin down after being over land for nearly a day. Surface observations no longer support tropical storm intensity, and therefore the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression. The cyclone should become a post-tropical low within a couple of days, and then transform into an extratropical cyclone while moving off the U.S. east coast. The official forecast shows some restrengthening in 2-4 days due to baroclinic processes. However, by the end of the forecast period, the system should be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone to the east of the Canadian Maritimes. Laura continues to move north-northeastward or at about 015/13 kt. A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast with increasing forward speed is likely while the cyclone becomes embedded in the stronger westerly flow. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical model consensus. There is a continued threat of flooding from Laura for the next couple of days. This is the last NHC advisory on Laura. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Key Messages: 1. Additional rainfall will continue to lead to flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, roadways, and minor to moderate river flooding across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday. 2. A few tornadoes remain possible this evening across eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and the Missouri Bootheel. The risk for a few tornadoes is expected to redevelop Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 35.1N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 28/1200Z 36.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/0000Z 37.3N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 30/1200Z 41.5N 67.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z 44.0N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0000Z 48.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2020-08-28 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 280234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-28 04:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 135 WTPZ43 KNHC 280234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 A burst of strong convection has developed near the center of Hernan during the past several hours, but overall the storm remains poorly organized. Indeed, a westerly surface wind observed in the Isla Marias Islands to the north of the center makes it unclear if a closed circulation still exists, a question that upcoming scatterometer data will hopefully resolve. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based mainly on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is now north-northwestward or 335/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and then west- northwestward as it rotates around the northeastern side of the approaching Tropical Storm Iselle. The new forecast track is nudged to the north of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. A combination of continued strong easterly shear and interaction with the larger Iselle should cause Hernan to weaken during the next 48 h or so. The new intensity forecast shows the system weakening to a depression after 12 h and degenerating to a remnant low by 36 h. After that, the cyclone is currently forecast to degenerate to a trough by 60 h as it gets absorbed into Iselle, and several of the global models suggest this could happen earlier. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.5N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 21.6N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 23.0N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 23.4N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-08-28 04:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 280234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Laura Forecast Advisory Number 33
2020-08-28 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 92.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 92.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.3N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.3N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.5N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 44.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 48.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 92.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3, WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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