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Tropical Storm Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-08-27 16:47:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 271447 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-08-27 16:47:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 271447 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF SABINE PASS... TEXAS AND EAST OF PORT FOURCHON...LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TEXAS TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 93.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 93.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.9N 92.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.8N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.0N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.7N 74.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.8N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 50.0N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 53.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 93.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 6
2020-08-27 16:47:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...HERNAN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 106.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 106.2 West. Hernan is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest along with an increase in forward speed is expected to occur by tonight. A turn to the west is forecast this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Iselle is expected to begin weakening on Friday, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday and be absorbed by the circulation of Hernan to its west on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-27 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 271447 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.2W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.2W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 30A
2020-08-27 13:58:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 271158 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 700 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ALONG MUCH OF THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 93.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from High Island to Intracoastal City has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 93.3 West. Laura is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion should continue through the day. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura will move northward across western and northern Louisiana through this afternoon. The center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Laura is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). An observing site in Alexandria, Louisiana, recently reported a wind gust to 74 mph (119 km/h) The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Johnson Bayou to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu Lake...15-20 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City...10-15 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft Sea Rim State Park to Johnson Bayou including Sabine Lake...4-8 ft Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft High Island to Sea Rim State Park...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Life-threatening storm surge with large and destructive waves will continue within the Storm Surge Warning area this morning. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana this morning. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning areas through the day. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, across Arkansas: 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 18 inches. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across the mid-Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley, the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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