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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-27 22:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 272031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.8W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.8W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 115.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.6N 114.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 114.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.9N 114.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 115.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 23.2N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.1N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 31A
2020-08-27 19:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 271756 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...FLOODING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING INLAND OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS... ...HIGH WATER LEVELS PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 92.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ENE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the Gulf coast has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass Texas to Port Fourchon Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located inland over northern Louisiana near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 92.8 West. Laura is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion should continue through this afternoon. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Laura is expected to weaken to a tropical depression this evening or overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) was recently reported at Monroe Regional Airport in Louisiana. A wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported at South Arkansas Regional Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf Coast and will continue to subside over the next few hours. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread into northern Louisiana and portions of Arkansas through this evening. RAINFALL: Through Friday Laura is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas, with isolated storm totals of 18 inches over Louisiana. This rainfall will continue to cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across the mid-Mississippi Valley, portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the central Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. The risk for tornadoes will shift into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions on Friday into Friday night. SURF: Swells produced by Laura continue to affect the U.S. Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas and northeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-27 16:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271450 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Iselle consists of a rather ragged looking area of deep convection being sheared to the southwest of a partially exposed low-level center. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the initial intensity at 40 kt. Moderate-to-strong easterly to northeasterly vertical wind shear will likely prevent Iselle from strengthening over the next couple of days. After that time, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat. However, the cyclone will then be moving over SSTs of only 26 C and into a more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause the deep convection to gradually dissipate, and the cyclone is expected to weaken this weekend before degenerating into a remnant low early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN consensus and SHIPS guidance. Iselle is moving northeastward at 4 kt, embedded in a large monsoon gyre. The steering flow is forecast to become more southerly this weekend inside the gyre, resulting in a more northward motion. As the cyclone breaks north of the gyre, a turn to the northwest then west is anticipated while the system becomes steered by a low- to mid- level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the TVCX track consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 17.0N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 17.5N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 18.9N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.9N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.2N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 22.5N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 22.3N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-08-27 16:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 271450 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 7 28(35) 19(54) 4(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) ISLA CLARION 50 X 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 14(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 5
2020-08-27 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 271450 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...ISELLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 115.8W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 115.8 West. Iselle is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north then northwest is forecast to occur on Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Iselle is expected to begin weakening late this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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