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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 32
2020-08-27 22:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 272042 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...FLOODING RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 92.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning along the Gulf coast has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect inland over portions of northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and extreme western Mississippi. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 92.8 West. Laura is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Friday and continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday, and over the western Atlantic on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Laura is expected to weaken to a tropical depression this evening or overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through Friday Laura is expected to produce the following additional rainfall totals: Over central and eastern Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches. Over southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated additional totals of 5 inches. Isolated storm totals of 15 to 18 inches across southwest Louisiana. Over northern Mississippi, western Tennessee, and southeast Missouri: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches. This rainfall will continue to cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the central and southern Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, will spread into portions of southeastern and eastern Arkansas through this evening. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible this evening, mainly across central and eastern Arkansas into Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should redevelop Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. SURF: Swells produced by Laura continue to affect the U.S. Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2020-08-27 22:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 272042 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 32
2020-08-27 22:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 272041 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 92.8W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 92.8W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.3N 91.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.7N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.4N 85.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 39.6N 70.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 43.1N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 48.8N 50.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 92.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-27 22:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 272034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Hernan has had a rather ragged appearance today with intermittent convection firing around, but never really over the center. There were no ASCAT overpasses during the day that directly sampled the system's circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support 35 kt and 30 kt, respectively, while the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON numbers range from 30 to 40 kt. Based on a blend of these values, the initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt. Hernan should at least maintain its current strength through tonight as it remains over very warm waters while battling moderate easterly shear. This shear is not forecast to abate during the forecast period. And by 24 h, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over progressively cooler waters. The combination of these two factors should induce a weakening trend. By 60 h, simulated satellite imagery by global models suggest that the cyclone will become devoid of deep convection. After that time, the remnant low is expected to be absorbed within the broader circulation of Iselle to its west. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in agreement with the various intensity consensus aids. Hernan is now moving northwest at about 5 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. Hernan is expected to remain caught within a large-scale, eastern North Pacific cyclonic gyre during the next few days, which will result in Hernan moving counter-clockwise around the eastern and northern periphery of the gyre. The cyclone is expected to continue to parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico through this evening and should begin to increase its forward speed tonight. A turn to the west-northwest then west is forecast Friday through Friday night. The westward motion should continue until the system becomes absorbed early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 19.6N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 21.6N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 22.3N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 22.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 22.6N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-27 22:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 272033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...HERNAN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 106.5W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 106.5 West. Hernan is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), an increase in forward speed is expected to occur by tonight. A turn to the west-northwest then west is forecast to occur Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast over the next couple of days and Hernan is expected to degenerate into a remnant low late this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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