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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 4
2020-08-27 10:50:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270849 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...ISELLE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 116.1W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 116.1 West. Iselle is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, mainly to the south and southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-27 10:50:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 A sheared band of deep convection has persisted near and to the southwest and west of Iselle's center. Night-visible satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has tightened up somewhat, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate is 41 kt. Based on these satellite data, the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. Unfortunately, all three scatterometer passes missed Iselle's inner-core wind field. The initial motion estimate is 030/04 kt. Similar to Tropical Storm Hernan farther to the east, Iselle is forecast to remain embedded within a large monsoon gyre, which will gradually contract down as Hernan moves toward southern Baja California and weakens over the next few days. This will result in the current southwesterly flow on the south side of Iselle to become more southerly, which will gradually turn the cyclone northward and then northwestward. By 72 hours, Iselle is expected to interact with and possibly absorb the remnants of Hernan when the two systems are west-southwest of Baja California. Thereafter, Iselle is forecast to move westward to west-southwestward and slowly weaken. The new NHC forecast track is close to a blend of the HCCA corrected-consensus model and the simple consensus models GFEX and TVCE, and is similar to the previous advisory track. Although short-lived convective bursts near the center will likely continue for the next few days, no significant strengthening is forecast for the next 48 hours due to moderate-to-strong easterly vertical wind shear that will persist across the system. At 60 hours and beyond, strong shear is expected to gradually weaken Iselle, with degeneration into a post-tropical remnant low forecast to occur by day 4, with the cyclone possibly even dissipating by 120 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 16.6N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 19.3N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 20.5N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 21.7N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 22.4N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 22.4N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-27 10:50:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270849 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 3 19(22) 23(45) 7(52) 1(53) X(53) 1(54) ISLA CLARION 50 X 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 13(22) 7(29) 1(30) 1(31) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-27 10:49:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270849 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 116.1W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 116.1W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.3N 114.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.5N 113.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.7N 114.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 22.4N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.4N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 30
2020-08-27 10:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270844 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...LAURA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES IN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 93.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning west of High Island, Texas has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning from San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas has been discontinued. The Hurricane Watch from east of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana has been canceled. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 93.4 West. Laura is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion should continue through the day. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura will move across southwestern Louisiana this morning, and then continue northward across the state through this afternoon. The center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Laura is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). An observation in Chennault, Louisiana, recently reported sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a wind gust of 93 mph (150 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). An unofficial observation of 948 mb (28.00 inches) was recently measured in the eye of Laura. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Johnson Bayou to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu Lake...15-20 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City...10-15 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft Sea Rim State Park to Johnson Bayou including Sabine Lake...4-8 ft Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft High Island to Sea Rim State Park...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area through the morning, with catastrophic wind damage expected near Laura's eyewall. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning areas through the day. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana this morning. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, across Arkansas: 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 18 inches. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across the mid-Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley, the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky/Blake
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