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Hurricane Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2020-08-27 10:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 270841 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAFAYETTE LA 50 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SHREVEPORT LA 34 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SHREVEPORT LA 50 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) SHREVEPORT LA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FORT POLK LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FORT POLK LA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 50 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) JASPER TX 64 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) KOUNTZE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KOUNTZE TX 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 30
2020-08-27 10:40:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270840 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN CANCELED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.6N 93.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.6N 85.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 39.8N 71.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 47.9N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 53.1N 46.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 93.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 29A
2020-08-27 07:59:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270558 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 100 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LAURA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 93.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from High Island westward to San Luis Pass, Texas has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning southwest of San Luis Pass has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to High Island Texas * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), Doppler radar images indicate that the eye of Hurricane Laura has made landfall at the coast near Cameron, Louisiana, near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 93.3 West. Laura is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion should continue through the day. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura will move inland across southwestern Louisiana this morning, and then continue northward across the state through this afternoon. The center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. Air Force reconnaissance and Doppler radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast as Laura moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A Weatherflow site in Cameron recently reported a sustained wind of 101 mph (163 km/h) with a gust to 116 mph (187 km/h). A National Ocean Service site at Calcasieu Pass reported a sustained wind of 93 mph (150 km/h) and a wind gust of 127 mph (204 km/h) within the last hour. A wind gust of 104 mph (167 km/h) was recently reported at Lake Charles, Louisiana. The minimum central pressure estimated the from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Johnson Bayou to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu Lake...15-20 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City...10-15 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft Sea Rim State Park to Johnson Bayou including Sabine Lake...6-9 ft Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft High Island to Sea Rim State Park...3-6 ft Freeport to High Island including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area through the morning, with catastrophic wind damage expected near Laura's eyewall. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning areas through the day. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana this morning. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 18 inches. Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches. Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected overnight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for tornadoes will continue through the day across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-27 04:58:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270258 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that a convective burst has formed a little closer to the center of Iselle during the past few hours, although the circulation remains at least somewhat elongated. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are near 35 kt, so that remains the initial intensity. The imagery, as well as model analyses, show that Iselle continues to be undergoing strong easterly shear. Iselle is embedded in a large monsoon gyre, and the southwesterly flow on the south side of the gyre should be the main steering influence for the next 60 h or so. This should result in the cyclone continuing its current slow motion toward the northeast. After that time, the cyclone should separate from the gyre, allowing a mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of the system to become the dominant steering mechanism. This should cause Iselle to turn to the north, then northwest, then eventually to the west. The track guidance is in good agreement with the general scenario, although there is some spread on when and where there turns will occur. The new forecast track is close to the HCCA corrected consensus mode and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Present indications are that the current strong shear will persist for several days, and after 72 h the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler sea surface temperatures. Based on this, significant strengthening appears unlikely, although short-lived spin ups due to convective bursts are possible. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast in showing little change of strength for 72 h, followed by weakening to a depression and a remnant low. An alternative scenario is that the shear causes Iselle to weaken to a trough at any time during the next 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 16.2N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 16.7N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 17.9N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-27 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270257 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...ISELLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 116.2W ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 116.2 West. Iselle is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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