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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 24
2020-08-25 22:39:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 252039 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 ...LAURA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 88.3W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those areas late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much of Arkansas. Over the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night over Louisiana, southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 23A
2020-08-25 19:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 756 WTNT33 KNHC 251741 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 100 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 ...LAURA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 87.6W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 87.6 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, approach the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those area on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations: Western Cuba...Additional totals of 1 inch or less. United States...From Wednesday night into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast from western Louisiana into east Texas, and northward into portions of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-08-25 17:05:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 251505 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Laura has become a little better organized since it crossed western Cuba, and it now has a central dense overcast and some outer banding in the southern quadrant. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft included SFMR winds of near 65 kt, 700-mb flight-level winds as high as 77 kt, and a central pressure near 990 mb. Based on these data, Laura has been upgraded to a hurricane with an initial intensity of 65 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 290/14 kt. The hurricane is currently on the south side of a large-deep layer ridge over the southeastern United States, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by mid- to -upper-level troughing over Texas and the southern Great Plains. The current and forecast synoptic pattern should steer Laura west-northwestward today followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight and toward the north by Wednesday night and Thursday. This will result in the hurricane making landfall in the area of southwestern Louisiana or the upper Texas coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The new forecast track before landfall has been nudged a little to the west of the previous track in response to a westward nudge in the guidance. However, it still lies a little east of the consensus models at the time of landfall. After landfall, Laura is expected to recurve into the westerlies and move eastward through the Tennessee Valley and the mid-Atlantic States. The hurricane currently looks a little ragged, with little or no convection outside of the central dense overcast and the southern quadrant banding. This may be due to dry air in the vicinity and some light northerly shear. Conditions appear generally favorable for strengthening during the next 36 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for Laura to become a major hurricane during this time. The global model are in good agreement that the hurricane should encounter increasing shear in the last 12 h before landfall, although the potential impacts on the landfall intensity are unclear. After landfall, Laura should weaken through the 96 h point. After that, some re-intensification is expected as the storm becomes extratropical. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity Wednesday night. Do not focus on the details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in NHC's track and intensity predictions. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge accompanied by large and dangerous waves from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect and residents should follow any advice given by local officials. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today, as water levels will begin to rise Wednesday. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected by Wednesday evening in the area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area Wednesday afternoon. 4. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding along with small streams overflowing their banks will be increasing Wednesday night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys Friday and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 23.7N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 24.6N 89.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 26.0N 91.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 28.0N 93.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 30.5N 93.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/0000Z 33.1N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 28/1200Z 35.2N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 29/1200Z 37.5N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-08-25 16:57:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 251457 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PHILADELPHIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) STENNIS MS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 13(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) BURAS LA 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 10(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 280N 890W 34 7 29(36) 6(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 19(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 4 52(56) 28(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 8( 8) 23(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 34(52) 4(56) X(56) X(56) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 26(58) 3(61) X(61) X(61) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 56(66) 10(76) X(76) X(76) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 4( 4) 26(30) 43(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) 37(73) 3(76) X(76) X(76) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 33(35) 60(95) 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 4( 4) 78(82) 9(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 64(64) 9(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) 18(66) X(66) X(66) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31) X(31) X(31) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 62(77) 10(87) X(87) X(87) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 9(54) X(54) X(54) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 3( 3) 34(37) 52(89) 4(93) X(93) X(93) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 56(62) 6(68) X(68) X(68) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41) CAMERON LA 34 X 6( 6) 59(65) 30(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 25(25) 49(74) 4(78) X(78) X(78) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 45(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 14(14) 64(78) 9(87) X(87) X(87) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 47(49) 10(59) X(59) X(59) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 58(82) 5(87) X(87) X(87) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 50(54) 7(61) X(61) X(61) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 5(39) X(39) X(39) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 34(36) 52(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 56(65) 6(71) X(71) X(71) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 5(45) X(45) X(45) GALVESTON TX 34 X 5( 5) 50(55) 25(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 19(19) 31(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 39(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 27(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 7( 7) 51(58) 11(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 3( 3) 39(42) 42(84) 3(87) X(87) X(87) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 15(15) 44(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 15(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 9(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 23
2020-08-25 16:57:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 251457 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 ...LAURA MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 87.0W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass and from east of Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 87.0 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, approach the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those area on Thursday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations: Western Cuba...Additional totals of 1 inch or less. United States...From Wednesday night into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast from western Louisiana into east Texas, and northward into portions of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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