je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-26 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 261445 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Earlier scatterometer data and GOES-16 Proxy-VIS satellite imagery indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has acquired sufficient convective organization and a well-defined surface circulation, and is now classified as a tropical cyclone. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and the aforementioned scatterometer data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt for this advisory. Moderate to strong east-northeasterly shear, the same inhibiting upper wind pattern that is affecting depression Thirteen-E, is forecast to hamper significant development through the entire forecast period. Therefore, only modest strengthening in the next 24 hours is expected, which agrees with the statistical- dynamical guidance and the large-scale models. The depression is moving rather slowly toward the northeast, or 040/2 kt. The low to mid-level steering synoptic pattern consists of a cyclonic gyre stretching southwestward from Hurricane Laura over central Mexico and into the eastern Pacific. This feature should cause the depression to continue in a northeastward general direction at a relatively slow pace through Friday. Afterward, a gradual turn toward the north-northwest and west-northwest is expected as high pressure currently over the southwestern U.S. builds westward over the Baja California peninsula and adjacent eastern Pacific. The NHC official forecast is a reflection of a blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 15.4N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 15.8N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 16.4N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 17.0N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.6N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 21.4N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z 22.4N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-26 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 261445 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 7(31) 2(33) X(33) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 3(16) 1(17) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 261444 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 117.2W ABOUT 705 MI...1130 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 117.2 West. The depression is moving slowly toward the northeast near 2 mph (4km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 261444 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 116.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.4N 116.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.6N 113.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.4N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 26A
2020-08-26 13:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261150 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 700 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...LAURA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... ...STEPS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 91.4W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 91.4 West. Laura is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue today, followed by a north-northwestward motion tonight. On the forecast track, Laura should approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland near those areas tonight or Thursday morning. Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and is forecast to continue strengthening into a category 4 hurricane later today. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall. Laura is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Buoy 42395, located just east of Laura's eye, recently reported a sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h) and a wave height of 37 feet (11 meters). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the warning areas well in advance of Laura's center later today. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the next few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...10-15 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft Port Bolivar to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Freeport to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along small streams. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this evening through tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
laura
advisory
Sites : [1037] [1038] [1039] [1040] [1041] [1042] [1043] [1044] [1045] [1046] [1047] [1048] [1049] [1050] [1051] [1052] [1053] [1054] [1055] [1056] next »