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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-27 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270257 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.2W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.2W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.9N 114.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-08-27 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270257 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 11(33) 3(36) 1(37) X(37) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-08-27 04:57:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270256 CCA TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 CORRECTED STATUS AT 12 HOURS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FREEPORT TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 93.2W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 93.2W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 93.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.8N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.6N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.8N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 82.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 45.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 52.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 93.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-08-27 04:56:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 270255 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Extremely dangerous Laura has the signature of a classic hurricane on satellite images, with a well-defined eye surrounded by very deep convection. There is little evidence of shear, and the upper-level outflow pattern is extremely well defined, while the cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 30 deg C. Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Laura continued to strengthen during the evening. Using a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds, the intensity estimate is 130 kt for this advisory. Since there is now little time remaining for the system over water, no significant change in intensity is anticipated until the center crosses the coastline. Laura will weaken rapidly after it begins to move over land, but destructive winds should spread well inland, more than 100 miles, along its path. Later in the forecast period, the ECMWF and U.K. Met. Office global models indicate some baroclinic re-intensification as the remnants of Laura move off the U.S. East coast, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. Laura has begun to turn northward as it moves around the western side of a subtropical high pressure area, and the initial motion is about 340/13 kt. The track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisories. The cyclone should move through a weakness in the ridge and turn to the northeast over the next day or two. Then the system should accelerate toward the east-northeast while embedded in the westerlies. The official track forecast remains close to both the simple and the corrected dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA. Laura is a large hurricane, and users are reminded to not focus on the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. 3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin overnight tonight into Thursday from far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 29.0N 93.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0000Z 33.8N 92.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/1200Z 35.6N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/0000Z 36.8N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 29/1200Z 37.5N 82.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0000Z 45.0N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z 52.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 29
2020-08-27 04:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270253 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 93.2W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 93.2 West. Laura is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Thursday, and a northward motion should continue through the day. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura will make landfall along the southwest Louisiana coast within the next few hours and move inland within that area early Thursday. The center of Laura is forecast to move over northwestern Louisiana on Thursday, across Arkansas Thursday night, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is likely before landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) were recently reported by a National Ocean Service station at Texas Point, Texas, at Sabine Pass. A wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently reported at Cameron, Louisiana. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter observations is 939 mb (27.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the next few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu Lake...15-20 ft Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine Lake...10-15 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday morning, with catastrophic wind damage expected where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Tropical storm conditions are moving onshore along the coast of Louisiana within the tropical storm warning area and are expected to spread northward within the warning areas overnight. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 18 inches. Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches. Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for tornadoes will continue on Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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