je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-26 10:48:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260848 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 10:48:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 854 WTPZ23 KNHC 260848 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.7W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.7W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N 108.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 22.7N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 106.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 10:48:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 853 WTPZ33 KNHC 260848 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 106.7W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 106.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the north is forecast by this afternoon, followed a motion toward the north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 25A
2020-08-26 07:54:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260554 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 100 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...LAURA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 90.2W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 90.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue overnight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast later today, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, Laura should approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday evening and move inland near those areas Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 55 miles (90 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf of Mexico recently reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...9-14 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along small streams. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late today or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible starting Wednesday evening over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
laura
advisory
Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-08-26 04:50:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260250 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Laura's cloud pattern is becoming better organized on satellite images, with a banding feature over the eastern portion of the circulation and an expanding central dense overcast with cloud tops of -80C or colder. The upper-level outflow is becoming better established over the northwestern quadrant. Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have increased to near 80 kt, and the central pressure is falling. The hurricane is expected to remain over SSTs near 30 deg C until it nears the coast, with only moderate vertical shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a significant probability for a 25-30 kt increase in strength during the next 24 hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast. This is also between the simple and corrected intensity model consensus predictions. Laura will weaken rapidly after landfall, but it will likely bring hurricane-force winds well inland over extreme western Louisiana and eastern Texas. Aircraft and satellite fixes show a continued west-northwestward track with an initial motion estimate near 300/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. The hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and north over the next day or two as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high and into a weakness into the subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period the cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast and move with increasing forward speed while embedded within the westerlies. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also very close to the simple and corrected consensus track model predictions. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 36 h is around 60 miles and the average intensity error is close to 10 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, as water levels will begin to rise on Wednesday. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Wednesday night in the warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. 3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin Wednesday night into Thursday across far eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 25.2N 89.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 26.5N 91.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 28.7N 93.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/1200Z 36.0N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0000Z 42.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
laura
forecast
Sites : [1039] [1040] [1041] [1042] [1043] [1044] [1045] [1046] [1047] [1048] [1049] [1050] [1051] [1052] [1053] [1054] [1055] [1056] [1057] [1058] next »