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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-07-24 04:39:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.2N 52.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.5N 58.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.3N 61.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.9N 67.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 14.4N 73.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 50.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-07-24 01:53:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 918 WTNT33 KNHC 232353 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 700 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 91.0W ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for portions of the Watch area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 91.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a topical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area by Friday night or Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday night or Saturday morning. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Monday along the Gulf Coast of the United States from Louisiana to south Texas, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor-to-moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by the tropical cyclone are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 9A
2020-07-24 01:23:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 232323 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 800 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO STILL HEADING DUE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 49.9W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 49.9 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean Sea Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea. Gonzalo is a compact tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the respective watch areas on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-23 22:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 232047 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression continues to become better organized, with the center near the eastern edge of a large and broadly curved convective area, with a second curved band to the east. Several subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have increased to 35 kt since the last advisory. However, surface observations, scatterometer data, and data from an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission show a large area of 25-30 kt winds south and east of the center, and no 35-kt winds to justify an upgrade at this time. Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this evening, and the current expectation is that they will find it is a tropical storm. The center meandered a bit today, possibly due to reformation. However, the system now seems to have resumed a west-northwestward motion of 285/7 kt. A mid-level ridge over the central United States is the predominant steering influence, and the global models forecast this ridge to build somewhat during the next several days. This should cause the depression to turn westward by 36-48 h and south of west after about 60 h. The track guidance remains in good agreement with that scenario, although there has been a slight southward shift in the guidance envelope and the consensus models. The new NHC forecast track is also shifted a little southward and has the center making landfall along the Texas coast in about 48 h. The depression is in an environment of light shear with good anticyclonic outflow, and it will be over warm sea surface temperatures until landfall. This should allow steady strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast has been increased to show a peak intensity of 50 kt just before landfall, followed by steady weakening and eventually dissipation after landfall. The new intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus. The aircraft and scatterometer data show that the strongest winds in the cyclone are currently occurring about 70-90 n mi from the center. This has caused the forecast wind radii to be expanded, and as a result a Tropical Storm Warning is needed for portions of the Texas coast. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it is likely to bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm warning has been issued. 2. The tropical cyclone is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana, southern Texas, and northern Mexico. These rains could result in flash flooding and isolated minor-to-moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 26.1N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 26.5N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 27.1N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 27.5N 95.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 27.6N 97.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 27.5N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/1800Z 27.3N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1800Z 27.0N 102.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 4
2020-07-23 22:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 232046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 90.7W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for portions of the Watch area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 90.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a topical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area by Friday night or Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday night or Saturday morning. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Monday along the Gulf Coast of the United States from Louisiana to south Texas, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor-to-moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by the tropical cyclone are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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