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Tropical Depression Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-07-23 10:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 230839 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 8( 9) 17(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) 1(11) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) 1(11) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) 1(15) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 7(26) X(26) 1(27) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 9(25) X(25) 1(26) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 1(19) X(19) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) X(18) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 1(16) 1(17) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-07-23 10:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230839 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 90.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 90.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 89.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 91.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.1N 92.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.7N 94.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 28.2N 97.0W...ON COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.2N 98.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 28.0N 102.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 90.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 6A
2020-07-23 07:33:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230533 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 200 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO HEADING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 46.2W ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 46.2 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-07-23 07:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230531 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 100 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...DEPRESSION SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 88.8W ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 88.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph, and this general motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a tropical storm in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches along the Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas coast, and inland through south-central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-07-23 04:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230243 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 Douglas's cloud pattern has improved quickly since the last advisory, with an eye becoming more distinct within an area of cold cloud tops and expanding outflow in all quadrants. The initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt. This is in agreement with the latest SATCON estimate and a blend of the latest ADT and SATCON estimates. The hurricane has another 24 hours or so over SSTs above 28C with very low vertical shear, and rapid intensification appears to be underway. Given the current satellite trends and the SHIPS RII showing a 50 percent chance of a 30-kt intensity increase in 24 h, the NHC forecast has been increased above the guidance in the short term, showing the system peaking at 110 kt in 24 h, although timing the peak intensity during rapid strengthening is quite difficult. By 36 h, SSTs cool along the forecast track but the shear remains low, which should result in gradual weakening. Late in the period, an increase in shear and a drier airmass should result in continued gradual weakening. Douglas is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, and all interests there should monitor forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. The initial motion estimate is now toward the west-northwest or 285/15. Douglas should continue on a general west-northwestward motion for the next 72 hours under the influence of an expansive mid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern North Pacific. The track will turn more toward the west late in the period as Douglas moves near the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 12.5N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.4N 134.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.9N 140.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 17.1N 143.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 18.2N 146.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 149.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 20.3N 155.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 21.0N 162.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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