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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-07-23 22:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 232041 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 Scatterometer data received just after the release of the previous advisory only showed winds of 40-45 kt, but given Gonzalo's small size, it's unlikely that the resolution of the instrument was able to capture the maximum winds. Even correcting for that, Gonzalo's winds were lowered to 50 kt on the 2 PM intermediate advisory, and that still looks good now with satellite intensity estimates ranging from 35 kt to 55 kt. Structure-wise, deep convection has redeveloped on top of Gonzalo's center, so the storm is not ready to give up its fight quite yet. There is still greater-than-normal uncertainty in Gonzalo's forecast intensity due to its small size and how it will behave in an environment of relatively light shear and warm sea surface temperatures counterbalanced by a lot of dry air. The statistical and dynamical hurricane models continue to show strengthening, while several of the global models, in particular the ECMWF and UKMET, still show Gonzalo weakening and opening up into a trough near or after it passes the Windward Islands. Based on the lower initial intensity and the latest guidance, the new official forecast has been lowered slightly, but it still brings Gonzalo to the hurricane threshold in 36-48 hours. Either way, Gonzalo's small size makes it susceptible to short-term changes in intensity that cannot be reflected in the official forecast. There is more confidence that weakening will occur after Gonzalo moves over the Caribbean Sea, with even the GFS showing the system becoming a trough. Given that, dissipation is now shown in the forecast at day 5. Gonzalo's initial motion is westward, or 275/11 kt. There has been no change in the track forecast reasoning, with Gonzalo expected to accelerate toward the west and west-northwest through the forecast period. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered, showing Gonzalo's center crossing somewhere through the Windward Islands between 48-60 hours. Some of the models shifted northward a bit on this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has therefore been nudged in that direction close to the multi-model consensus aids, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble. However, users should not focus on these relatively small shifts in the forecast track from cycle to cycle, and for the Windward Islands in particular, consider that 48-60 hour forecast points can be off by an average of 60-80 nm. Key Messages 1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands. 2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect some of the islands, and additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or early Friday. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 9.8N 49.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 10.0N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 10.5N 53.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 11.1N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 13.0N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 13.8N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 14.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-07-23 22:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 232041 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 1(36) X(36) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 9
2020-07-23 22:41:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 232041 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 49.4W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Tobago and Grenada. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 49.4 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea. Gonzalo is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the respective watch areas on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-07-23 22:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 232041 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR TOBAGO AND GRENADA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOBAGO * GRENADA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 49.4W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 49.4W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 48.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.0N 51.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.5N 53.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.1N 56.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.0N 62.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.8N 65.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 14.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 49.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 3A
2020-07-23 19:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 231734 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 100 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 90.3W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for portions of the Watch area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 90.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a west- northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a tropical storm during the next 12 to 24 hours. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday night. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches through Monday along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas Coast, and inland through south-central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This rain may result in flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor flooding across the west-central Gulf Coast and into portions of south Texas. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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