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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-23 16:45:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 231445 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 Recently-obtained GCOM and WindSat microwave data from overnight shows that Gonzalo's center is a little farther south than previously estimated. In addition, the storm's structure has become a little disheveled since yesterday, with the deep convection losing some organization. SAB's data-T number responded to this by falling to 2.5, but overall the CI numbers and SATCON support maintaining 55 kt for now. There is still an incredible amount of uncertainty in Gonzalo's intensity forecast. Sea surface temperatures to the east of the Windward Islands are warm--close to 29C--and the storm is likely to be moving through an environment of relatively light shear at least for the next 48 hours or so. The ambient environment is not particularly moist, however, with mid-level relative humidity generally around 50 percent, and it already appears that this dry air is affecting Gonzalo. Small cyclones like Gonzalo tend to succumb to any type of adverse environmental conditions quite easily, and it's possible that the system could struggle during the next couple of days. This is the solution shown by some of the global models, particularly the ECMWF and UKMET. On the other hand, the hurricane statistical and dynamical models, as well as the GFS, continue to show Gonzalo strengthening to a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Out of an abundance of caution, the official forecast continues to show Gonzalo becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours, but the uncertainty in this scenario cannot be stressed enough. There is a higher degree of certainty that Gonzalo would weaken once it moves over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, where even the GFS shows it opening up into a wave. Even with the southward adjustment of the initial position, Gonzalo still appears to be moving westward, or 270/12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north is forecast to push Gonzalo toward the west or west-northwest, with an increase in forward speed, for the entire 5-day forecast period. Much of the track uncertainty hinges on exactly how strong Gonzalo gets, with the stronger model representations showing the storm making more poleward process. Models such as the ECMWF and UKMET, which keep Gonzalo weak or open it up into a trough, are along the southern side of the guidance envelope. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted southward some, to account for the new initial position and to be a little closer to the intensity consensus, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble. Key Messages 1. There is an increasing risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands. 2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands. Hurricane Watches are currently in effect for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and additional watches for other islands could be required later today. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 9.6N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 9.8N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 10.1N 52.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 10.5N 55.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 11.2N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 11.9N 62.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 12.6N 65.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 14.0N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-07-23 16:45:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 231445 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) X(24) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 1(40) X(40) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) X(35) X(35) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-07-23 16:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 231444 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 48.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 48.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 9.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.1N 52.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.5N 55.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.9N 62.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.6N 65.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N 71.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 48.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-07-23 13:56:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231156 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 800 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 47.9W ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 47.9 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected today followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo could become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-07-23 13:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 231155 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 700 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 90.4W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 90.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a tropical storm in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches through Monday along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas Coast, and inland through south-central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. These rains may result in flash flooding across the west-central Gulf Coast into portions of south Texas. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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