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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-07-23 10:42:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 649 WTPZ23 KNHC 230842 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 134.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 134.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 133.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.0N 136.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 139.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.6N 148.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.4N 151.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.5N 157.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.0N 163.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 134.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-07-23 10:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 230842 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 2(30) X(30) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 2(39) 1(40) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) X(40) X(40) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 3(29) X(29) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Hurricane Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-07-23 10:42:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230842 PWSEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 140W 34 X 77(77) 12(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 140W 50 X 27(27) 25(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 140W 64 X 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 2(42) X(42) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 7(43) X(43) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 1(35) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-07-23 10:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230841 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 47.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 47.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.1N 48.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.9N 53.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.2N 60.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 14.8N 68.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 47.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-23 10:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230840 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite images and surface synoptic observations suggest that the depression has not strengthened thus far, although recent images show some increase in deep convection near the estimated center. The initial intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in agreement with surface data over the Gulf. The cyclone should remain in a relatively moist, low-shear environment during the next day or so. However, since the system is not well organized, only slow strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the coast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper range of the model guidance at this time. The center is not well-defined and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 290/8 kt. This is more or less consistent with observations from NOAA data buoy 42001 over the central Gulf. A continued west-northwestward track is expected over the next day or so followed by a slight bend toward the west in response to some building of a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one but not quite as fast as the latest dynamical model consensus. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 26.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 26.4N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 27.1N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 27.7N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 28.2N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...ON COAST 72H 26/0600Z 28.2N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/0600Z 28.0N 102.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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