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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 2
2020-07-23 10:59:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230859 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 90.0W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 90.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a tropical storm in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches through Monday along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas Coast, and inland through south-central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. These rains may result in flash flooding across the west-central Gulf Coast into portions of south Texas. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 7
2020-07-23 10:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230848 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO STRENGTHENS AGAIN WHILE STILL HEADING DUE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 47.0W ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 47.0 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-23 10:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230842 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 A 0441 UTC ATMS/Soumi NPP microwave overpass revealed a well-developed banding feature wrapping into the center from the east semi-circle. Cloud tops have once again cooled near the surface center and subsequently, the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to T3.5 (55 kt). Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt for this advisory. No major changes were made to the intensity forecast and there still remains a relatively high degree of uncertainty beyond day 3 while the cyclone moves through the Caribbean Sea. Strengthening is forecast through 48 hours as Gonzalo approaches the Islands and the forecast is close to a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus, the IVCN multi-model guidance and the Decay SHIPS. Beyond mid-period, the forecast reflects a weakening trend in respect to the European models solution, but at much more gradual rate. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt. The forecast track philosophy remains unchanged. Gonzalo is moving within low to mid-level easterly steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone, and this high pressure should steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next few days. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. Two distinct model clusters with differing forecast track solutions persist. The European models along with the Canadian indicate a weak cyclone moving generally westward through the southern Windward Islands and dissipating in 5 days or less. The NCEP models, on the other hand, show a much stronger tropical cyclone with a west-northwestward to northwestward motion toward Hispaniola. The NHC forecast basically down the middle of these to model clusters and is very close to the TVCA consensus aid. Interests in the Windward Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Barbados. Key Messages 1. There is an increasing risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend. Hurricane conditions are possible on Barbados where a hurricane watch has been issued. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 10.1N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 10.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 11.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 12.2N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 14.8N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-07-23 10:42:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230842 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 Douglas has rapidly intensified since earlier today, with satellite images showing a ragged, but nearly clear eye surrounded by cold cloud tops of -70 C. There appears to be a little dry air intrusion across the northern portion of the circulation, which is limiting the amount of deep convection wrapping around that part of the eye. Both Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 5.5/100 kt, while the ADT and SATCON estimate averages have increased to 105 kt. Since the cyclone's appearance has improved slightly since these estimates arrived, the advisory initial intensity has been set at 105 kt, making Douglas a major hurricane. The environmental conditions supporting the rapid intensification appear at their best at this time as the cyclone is over SSTs of over 28 C, with low wind shear in a moist air mass. If the cyclone can fight off the dry air in the northern semicircle, some additional strengthening is possible, especially early Thursday. However, Douglas should be gradually moving into a less hospitable environment for strengthening over the next few days, and in 36 h the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm and into a region where the 500-700 mb relative humidity is less than 60 percent. Later on in the forecast period, wind shear is also expected to be on the increase. These factors should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken beginning Thursday night. Douglas is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, and all interests there should monitor forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. The NHC forecast was adjusted higher in the first 12 h based on the initial intensity, and is very close to the previous forecast after that time. This intensity forecast closely follows the various consensus aids. The initial motion is west-northwest or 295/15. Douglas should continue on a general west-northwestward motion for the next few days, steered by a large mid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern North Pacific. The cyclone is then forecast to turn more toward the west late in the forecast period as it moves near the Hawaiian Islands. The track guidance is tightly clustered and the new NHC is little changed from the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.1N 134.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.0N 136.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 139.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 18.6N 148.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 19.4N 151.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 20.5N 157.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 21.0N 163.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Douglas Public Advisory Number 12
2020-07-23 10:42:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 648 WTPZ33 KNHC 230842 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...DOUGLAS BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 134.0W ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 134.0 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible on Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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