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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 16A
2020-10-23 01:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222349 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 800 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 ...EPSILON COULD STILL PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 61.5W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 61.5 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northward motion is expected through early Saturday with a faster motion toward the northeast later that day. The center of Epsilon will continue to pass well east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected for the next day or two before gradual weakening begins by late Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). An observation site near Heritage Wharf, Bermuda, reported a sustained wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-10-22 22:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222033 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 Satellite images indicate that the eye of Epsilon has lost definition over the past several hours. While satellite intensity estimates haven't changed much yet, they were generally higher than the earlier reconnaissance data. The initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, on the lower side of the satellite estimates after placing more weight on the aircraft data. Epsilon is moving faster to the north-northwest this afternoon, at roughly 8 kt. The hurricane should turn northward overnight and continue on that heading for a day or two while it moves through a break in the central Atlantic ridge. Epsilon is likely to move considerably faster to the northeast over the weekend as it get caught in the mid-latitude flow. The only significant adjustment to this forecast is a small northward shift in a couple of days. The new NHC track is still south of the model consensus over the weekend and beyond, placing more emphasis on the global models than the regional hurricane guidance. After 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to merge with a much larger extratropical cyclone over the far north Atlantic. The small core that Epsilon has maintained for the past couple of days seems to be degrading, and perhaps it is forming a larger secondary wind maximum based on AMSR microwave data. Otherwise, a trough interaction and a small warm eddy near the Gulf Stream could lead to a slight recovery in Epsilon's strength tomorrow or Saturday. Either way, the global models make this hurricane's wind field quite a bit larger (especially the 50- and 64-kt winds), and that's reflected in the latest wind radii forecast. The new NHC wind speed prediction is about the same as the previous one, adjusted slightly for a lower initial wind speed. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 31.9N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 34.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 36.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 39.0N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 42.2N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 46.5N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 16
2020-10-22 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 ...EPSILON STILL COULD PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 61.4W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 61.4 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northward motion is expected through early Saturday with a faster motion toward the northeast later that day. The center of Epsilon will pass well east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected for the next couple of days before gradual weakening starts on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-10-22 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 222033 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 20 5(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 15A
2020-10-22 19:37:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221737 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 200 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 ...EPSILON NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST... ...SHOULD PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA BUT CAUSE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 61.2W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 61.2 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a northward motion tonight through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the northeast over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon should make its closest approach to, but well to the east of, Bermuda later this evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, with gradual weakening forecast by early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin
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