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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-10-25 09:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 250836 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 83 4(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ILE ST PIERRE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 26
2020-10-25 09:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 ...EPSILON EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.8N 53.7W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 53.7 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h). A continued northeastward acceleration is expected through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast this morning. Epsilon is expected to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-10-25 09:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250835 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 53.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 540SE 570SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 53.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 45.5N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 320SE 350SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 49.7N 36.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 180SE 160SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 54.7N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.8N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-10-25 06:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250550 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 83.5 West. Zeta is currently stationary and is re-organizing. However, a slow north- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume later today. A turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate Zeta. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico by Monday evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-10-25 03:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250251 CCA TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 56.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 510SE 540SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 56.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 57.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 51.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 320SE 350SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.3N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 350SE 350SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.6N 30.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 100SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 370SE 400SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 56.5N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 130SW 110NW. 34 KT...350NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.3N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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