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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-10-24 16:59:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 543 WTNT42 KNHC 241459 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 The appearance of Epsilon has changed little since early this morning, with satellite images revealing an eye feature embedded in a small area of deep convection, while a much larger comma-shaped pattern extends several hundred miles to the north of the center. A drifting buoy array that was placed ahead of the hurricane has provided useful information on the intensity of Epsilon. At 1100 UTC, a buoy located very near the center of the cyclone reported a pressure of 957.6 mb. This pressure was much lower than the previous estimated pressure of 972 mb, which was made without the availability of the buoy data. Therefore, it is likely that Epsilon was a stronger hurricane last night. Based on this data, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 70 kt, and this value could still be conservative based on typical high-latitude pressure-wind relationships. Epsilon has made its anticipated turn to the northeast and is now moving at 050/11 kt. The cyclone should begin accelerating toward the northeast later today in the mid-latitude westerlies, reaching a forward motion of about 40 kt to the northeast or east-northeast by Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through early next week. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered track guidance. The cyclone is forecast to move over waters of about 24-26 degrees C for the next 12 h or so, while encountering cooler temperatures aloft. This should allow Epsilon to maintain its current intensity today. After 12 h, the water temperatures below the cyclone are expected to decrease below 20 degrees C, while the system interacts with an mid- to upper-level trough. These factors should cause the inner-core convection to dissipate while the system transitions to a large and powerful extratropical cyclone sometime on Sunday. This cyclone is then expected to merge with a larger extratropical low over the far northern Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday. That low pressure system will likely produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic through the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 37.9N 60.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 39.7N 57.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 42.8N 51.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/0000Z 46.7N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/1200Z 50.9N 30.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/0000Z 55.6N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-10-24 16:59:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 241459 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 23
2020-10-24 16:58:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241458 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 ...EPSILON REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.9N 60.3W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 60.3 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A rapid acceleration to the northeast is expected to occur later today through Sunday, with a fast northeast to east-northeast motion forecast to occur Sunday evening into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected over the weekend. Epsilon is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405 miles (650 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-10-24 16:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 241458 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 60.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......180NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. 34 KT.......350NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..470NE 450SE 420SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 60.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 61.2W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.7N 57.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 42.8N 51.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 290SE 260SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 46.7N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 350SE 350SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 50.9N 30.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 140SW 150NW. 34 KT...330NE 370SE 400SW 430NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 55.6N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 140SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 60.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 22
2020-10-24 10:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 240837 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 ...LARGE EPSILON EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.9N 62.0W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 36.9 North, longitude 62.0 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today. Epsilon is then forecast to continue moving northeastward with quickly increasing forward speed by this evening, which will continue through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected over the weekend. Epsilon is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 355 miles (575 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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