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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-10-25 03:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 774 WTNT43 KNHC 250248 CCA TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Corrected timing in Key Message number 3 Deep convection has increased during the past few hours south of the estimated low-level position based on aircraft data from just after the release of the previous advisory. In fact, geostationary imagery suggests that the low-level center could be trying to reform closer to the deep convection. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system overnight and provide additional data on the cyclone's structure and intensity. As noted above, the depression hasn't moved much, and the system currently appears to be stationary. Satellite imagery and upper-air data show a shortwave trough moving through the southeastern United States, which has weakened the steering flow around the cyclone. As the shortwave moves eastward, the subtropical ridge will expand westward to the north of the tropical cyclone by Monday, which should result in a steadier west-northeastward motion. After that time, a powerful mid/upper-level low is forecast to eject out of the southwestern U.S., which will weaken the ridge and cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and northeastward as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. The global models are not in good agreement on the details of the timing of the eastward movement of the upper-low. While this isn't unusual, it results in significant differences in when and where the tropical cyclone turns and exactly where it crosses the Gulf Coast next week, with model solutions ranging from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The new NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and the TVCA multi-model consensus. However, given the current lack of motion of the system and the large model spread late in the period, the details of the track forecast are more uncertain than usual. If the cyclone's low- and mid-level circulations can become better aligned, the environment for the next 2 to 3 days appears conducive for steady intensification, with low shear and SSTs of near 30C in the northwestern Caribbean and above 28C in the southern Gulf. After 72 hours, the shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves over cooler SSTs near the northern Gulf Coast, which should result in weakening before the center moves inland. The new NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one through about 60 hours, and is a blend of the latest intensity consensus aids and HCCA. While the current NHC forecast indicates that the system should weaken below hurricane strength before landfall, users are reminded that strong tropical storms can still produce significant storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along the northern Gulf Coast. The cyclone should be absorbed into a frontal system by the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday and tropical storm conditions are expected in extreme western Cuba on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. 3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm Tuesday night and Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 18.9N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 19.2N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 20.0N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 20.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 21.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 23.2N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 25.4N 90.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Public Advisory Number 2
2020-10-25 03:39:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250239 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 83.1W ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar del Rio. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.1 West. The depression is currently stationary, but a slow north- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and continue on Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 to 72 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday morning, and could become a hurricane by early Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico by Monday evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-10-25 03:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 250238 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) X(25) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) X(28) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) X(31) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) X(34) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 29(48) X(48) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) X(31) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 27(49) X(49) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) 8(31) X(31) X(31) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 17(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 7( 8) 7(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) X(25) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) X(36) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-10-25 03:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.2N 83.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.0N 83.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.7N 84.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.7N 86.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.2N 88.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 25.4N 90.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 83.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-10-25 03:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250234 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 Epsilon has become a little less organized during the past couple of hours. The hurricane is still producing inner-core convection, but cloud tops have gradually warmed, and the overall cloud pattern has become asymmetric once again. ASCAT-A data from just after 00Z showed maximum winds of 55-60 kt southeast of Epsilon's center. The intensity of the hurricane is therefore set at 65 kt, assuming a little undersampling from the ASCAT instrument. The wind radii analysis was also updated based on the ASCAT data. The hurricane is currently located over relatively warm waters associated with the Gulf Stream. Epsilon is forecast to remain over the Gulf Stream for at least another 12 hours, and should maintain its tropical structure during that time. The cyclone is forecast to move over much cooler water by Sunday afternoon and this should cause it to quickly become post-tropical. Gradual weakening is expected through this period, but the global models indicate that Epsilon will continue to produce a very large area of gale-force winds and maximum winds near hurricane strength even after it becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then expected to merge with another large non-tropical low early next week. The hurricane is accelerating northeastward and should continue to gain forward speed in that general direction for the next day or so. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which is based on a blend of TVCA and HCCA. All of the typically reliable track models show the same evolution, so confidence in the track forecast remains high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 41.3N 56.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 43.6N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 47.3N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/1200Z 51.6N 30.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0000Z 56.5N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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