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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 15
2020-10-22 16:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221458 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 ...EPSILON HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ON BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 61.2W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 61.2 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward motion tonight through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the northeast over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to, but well to the east of, Bermuda later this evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, with weakening by early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-10-22 16:57:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 221457 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 61.2W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......270NE 200SE 120SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..630NE 360SE 510SW 510NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 61.2W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 61.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.4N 61.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.1N 61.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.9N 60.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 260SE 200SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.6N 57.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 40NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.0N 50.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW 40NW. 34 KT...290NE 320SE 310SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 52.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 61.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PAPIN
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 14A
2020-10-22 13:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221158 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 800 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EPSILON HAS DROPPED IN INTENSITY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 61.3W ABOUT 235 MI...385 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 61.3 West. Epsilon has been wobbling toward the west recently, but its longer-term motion is toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward motion tonight through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the northeast on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to, but well to the east of, Bermuda later this evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches) based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-22 10:48:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220848 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 Epsilon's eye has lost some definition and become cloud filled in conventional satellite imagery during the past few hours, and an 0604 UTC AMSR2 microwave image showed that the eyewall has been eroded on the west side. Given the degradation of the cloud pattern and lowering Dvorak estimates, Epsilon's initial intensity is being set, likely generously, at 95 kt. A recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate suggests that the intensity could be 10-15 kt lower than that, but I'd rather we see the aircraft reconnaissance data in a few hours before reducing it any further. Epsilon's trochoidal wobbles have continued overnight, but a longer-term 12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane has turned toward the northwest (320/6 kt). A mid-tropospheric high over the central Atlantic will be Epsilon's main driver, causing the hurricane to turn toward the north-northwest later today and then toward the north tonight. Shorter-term deviations around this general trajectory will be possible if the trochoidal oscillations continue through the day. Epsilon is forecast to turn toward the northeast and accelerate on Saturday when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, taking it past southeastern Newfoundland and into the north Atlantic early next week. The new NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly clustered model guidance, and close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. However, because of the recent wobbles, this new forecast lies about 40 n mi to the east of the previous forecast during the first 36 hours. Epsilon's forecast track takes it over a rather homogeneous field of sea surface temperatures between 25-26 degrees Celsius for the next 48-60 hours as vertical shear increases somewhat. Gradual weakening is anticipated during that period, but a more sudden decrease in ocean temperatures after 60 hours should induce quicker weakening thereafter. Hurricane and global models both agree on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Epsilon is expected to merge with a frontal zone and become extratropical by day 4. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 30.6N 60.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 36.6N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 38.7N 59.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 41.6N 54.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/0600Z 60.0N 22.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 14
2020-10-22 10:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 675 WTNT32 KNHC 220848 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 60.9W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 60.9 West. Epsilon has been wobbling around since last evening, but its longer-term motion is toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward motion tonight through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the northeast on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to, but well to the east of, Bermuda later this evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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