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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2020-10-24 10:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 240837 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-10-24 10:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240836 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 62.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT.......150NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. 34 KT.......310NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 390SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 62.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.8N 59.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...270NE 250SE 200SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.5N 55.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 45.0N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 300SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 49.1N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 130SE 110SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 400SE 330SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 53.3N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N 62.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2020-10-24 04:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 240237 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 21

2020-10-24 04:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240235 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.1W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT.......170NE 70SE 70SW 130NW. 34 KT.......310NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 420SE 390SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.1W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.1N 61.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...270NE 250SE 200SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.4N 57.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 50.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 300SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.4N 40.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 130SE 110SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 400SE 330SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.7N 29.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 62.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 20

2020-10-23 22:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 232051 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6 hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory, close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same, where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h. Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt wind field should continue to expand to the south while it undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 35.5N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 37.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 38.9N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 41.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 45.6N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1800Z 54.0N 24.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake

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