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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2020-10-25 03:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 250233 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 6 53(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ILE ST PIERRE 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 25

2020-10-25 03:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 ...EPSILON GROWS EVEN LARGER AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.3N 56.1W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 41.3 North, longitude 56.1 West. Epsilon is accelerating toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). Continued acceleration in that direction is expected for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is possible through the weekend, but Epsilon is expected to remain a large and powerful system even after it becomes post-tropical on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Public Advisory Number 1A

2020-10-25 01:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242333 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 83.1W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. The system should gradually turn toward the west-northwest with a faster forward speed by Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to remain south of western Cuba tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late Monday before emerging over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and could become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 24

2020-10-24 22:56:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 242056 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 ...LARGE HURRICANE EPSILON ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 58.2W ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 58.2 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). Additional acceleration toward the northeast is expected through Sunday. A continued fast northeastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast to occur Sunday evening into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected over the weekend. Epsilon is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 425 miles (685 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 24

2020-10-24 22:56:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 513 WTNT42 KNHC 242056 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 Epsilon continues to exhibit an inner core of deep convection. In fact, only in the past couple of hours has the eye become difficult to locate in satellite images. A larger comma-shaped cloud shield surrounds the circulation, and extends several hundred miles from the center. Epsilon passed over a buoy array this morning where pressures as low as 957.6 mb were recorded. In addition, a pair of ASCAT overpasses late this morning showed a large area of winds of 60-65 kt in the southern semicircle. This data supported an intensity of 70 kt earlier, and the cyclone's appearance has not changed much since then. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 70 kt. The hurricane will likely hold its own for the next 6-12 h as it traverses over waters of about 24 C, while in a fairly favorable atmospheric environment downstream of a mid- to upper-level trough. After 12 h, Epsilon should begin to move over waters of 20 degrees C or less. The combination of the much cooler water temperatures and trough interaction should cause the cyclone to begin an extratropical transition that is forecast to complete by late Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast was nudged a little higher in the 24-48 h time frames due to a slight increase in the guidance, and the latest forecast is very near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Regardless of exactly when Epsilon becomes extratropical, it is still expected to remain a very large and powerful cyclone until it merges with a larger low to its north in a few days. Epsilon is accelerating and is now moving northeastward at 19 kt. The cyclone should continue accelerating toward the northeast through Sunday in the mid-latitude westerlies, and could reach a forward motion of about 40 kt toward the northeast or east-northeast by Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through early next week. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 39.4N 58.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 44.9N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/0600Z 48.9N 35.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/1800Z 53.5N 25.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/0600Z 58.5N 19.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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