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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-10-06 10:52:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060852 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) 11(31) 4(35) 1(36) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 9(14) 12(26) 8(34) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/STEWART
Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-10-06 10:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060851 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 1100 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 A 6/0630Z ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass indicated that Marie has refused to weaken despite the deep convection being severely sheared to the northeast of the low-level center. A solid area of 40-kt was present northwest through northeast of the center, with a couple of 45-kt vectors present. However, the 45-kt vectors look like they could have been rain enhanced, so the initial intensity remains at 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Marie is expected to move slowly west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours or so, during which time the cyclone will gradually spin down and become more vertically shallow. Thereafter, and continuing until dissipation occurs, a more westward motion is anticipated when the shallow system will be steered by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The new NHC forecast track is similar to but a tad north of the previous advisory track, and lies near the middle of the tightly packed consensus aids. Although Marie has managed to survive some horrendous southwesterly vertical wind of at least 30 kt, the cyclone is not long for this world due to the shear increasing further while the cyclone moves over sub-25 deg C sea-surface temperatures for the next few days. These very unfavorable environmental conditions should result in all convection being stripped away by late Tuesday morning, causing Marie to degenerate into a 35-kt post-tropical cyclone. Further weakening is anticipated, with Marie becoming a remnant low by Tuesday night and dissipating by late Friday or Saturday over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 21.7N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 22.2N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/0600Z 22.7N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 23.0N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z 23.2N 140.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 3
2020-10-06 10:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060851 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM NORBERT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 106.2W ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 106.2 West. Norbert is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected today, and Norbert is forecast to remain nearly stationary through midweek. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 29
2020-10-06 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 060851 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 1100 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 ...TENACIOUS MARIE REFUSES TO WEAKEN... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 134.3W ABOUT 1560 MI...2510 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 134.3 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-10-06 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 060851 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 134.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 134.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 135.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.7N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.0N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 140.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 134.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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