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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 17
2020-09-15 16:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 151445 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...SALLY CRAWLING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...HISTORIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM SALLY WITH EXTREME LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 88.2W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Bay St. Louis to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Bay St. Louis westward to Grand Isle Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 88.2 West. Sally is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow north- northwestward to northward motion is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow northward to north-northeastward motion tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will pass near the coast of southeastern Louisiana today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-7 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line,FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrews Bay...1-3 ft Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and these conditions will continue through Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is likely with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move inland Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes may occur today through Wednesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-15 16:44:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 151443 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS... AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS TO NAVARRE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * BAY ST. LOUIS WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 88.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 88.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.2N 88.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.9N 86.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.6N 85.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.0N 83.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-15 16:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151439 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Although the stiff westerly shear (magnitude of greater than 50 kt) continues to affect Vicky's vertical structure this morning, a 1107 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated that the cyclone is maintaining 45-kt sustained winds well to the east-northeast of the center. Therefore, once again for this advisory, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS intensity models and the deterministic guidance, including the simulated infrared imagery product, agree with Vicky weakening to a remnant low in 36 hours and dissipating by 72 hours due to the persistent strong shear. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. Vicky is forecast to continue on this general motion through Wednesday night within the low-level tradewind flow. No significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the new NHC forecast is based on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 20.6N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 21.3N 32.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 21.9N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 22.2N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 22.2N 39.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-15 16:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151439 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...VICKY HOLDING STEADY AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 31.0W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 31.0 West. Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the west on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast due to strong upper-level winds during the next 48 hours, and Vicky is likely to degenerate into remnant low by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-15 16:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 151439 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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