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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 35
2020-09-15 16:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151437 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 A 0533 UTC AMSR2 overpass on Paulette already reveals structural changes associated with the approaching mid-latitude baroclinic zone. The microwave image and GOES-16 mid- to upper-level water vapor imagery show drier more stable air beginning to intrude into the western portion of the cyclone. Additionally, Paulette's rain shield is more confined to the northern half of the system, while drying out in the southern semi-circle. Only fragments of the eyewall remain in that particular area. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory and is supported by the subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although Paulette is beginning to lose some of its tropical characteristics, the cyclone still has a small window of opportunity to strengthen while it continues moving over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 12-18 hrs. Afterward, the water temperature drop drastically to less than 20C while Paulette becomes more involved with the aforementioned baroclinic system. As a result, the cyclone should weaken rather rapidly and complete its extratropical transition on Thursday, and this is based on an agreement of the large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical guidance. The aforementioned microwave pass indicated that the center of circulation was a bit west-southwest of the previous position and therefore the initial estimated motion is believed to be northeastward, or 055/25 kt. Paulette is forecast to accelerate further and turn east-northeastward later tonight and continuing through Wednesday night, then slow down a bit on Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn east- southeastward to south-southeastward as it moves within the western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just a little faster than the previous one through 60 hours and lies closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and is also similar to the GFEX ECMWF/FV3 simple consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 38.3N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 40.1N 53.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 42.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 45.0N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/0000Z 45.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z 43.9N 33.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1200Z 39.9N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 35
2020-09-15 16:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 151437 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...PAULETTE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD AT AN EVEN FASTER PACE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 57.9W ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 57.9 West. Paulette is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). A faster motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east-southeast and south-southeast late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday as the cyclone undergoes extratropical transition. Paulette should complete its transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2020-09-15 16:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 151437 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 35
2020-09-15 16:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151436 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 57.9W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 130SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 57.9W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 59.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.1N 53.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.7N 46.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.0N 40.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 45.6N 33.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 43.9N 33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 140SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 39.9N 32.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 57.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-15 16:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 151434 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Teddy's structure is slowly improving. Visible and IR imagery indicate that inner-core convection has increased, despite the continued presence of dry slots. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 55 kt. Teddy is still heading west-northwestward for the moment with a forward speed estimate of 11 kt. Teddy will likely turn northwestward today and continue steadily moving northwestward along the southwest periphery of a ridge over the central Atlantic for the next several days. In fact, all available guidance indicates that once it makes that northwestward turn, Teddy will barely deviate from its heading or forward speed for the rest of the week. The latest NHC track forecast is virtually identical to the previous one. The model spread is smaller than usual and confidence in the track forecast is high. Teddy's low shear and warm SST environment should be conducive for further strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged. Some dry air in the environment could restrict Teddy's intensification rate, but is not expected to prevent Teddy from becoming a hurricane later today or tonight. Continued strengthening is expected thereafter and Teddy is forecast to become a major hurricane within the next few days. On the whole, the intensity guidance is a little lower at the longer-range times, so the NHC forecast at days 4 and 5 is at the very top end of the guidance. I'd rather see a more consistent signal from the models before making a larger change to the forecast, especially given the impressive depiction of Teddy in the global model forecasts at that time. The 34 kt wind radii were expanded to the northwest of Teddy based on data from an 1136 UTC ASCAT-A overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 48.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.1N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 20.3N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 21.5N 55.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 27.1N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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