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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-15 16:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 151432 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-15 16:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 151432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.5N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.6N 130.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 121.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 16A
2020-09-15 13:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 562 WTNT34 KNHC 151144 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...HISTORIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM SALLY WITH EXTREME LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 88.0W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Mouth of the Pearl River westward to Grand Isle Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 88.0 West. Sally is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A northward turn is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will pass near the coast of southeastern Louisiana today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area tonight or Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...4-7 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area this late afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the warning area across the western Florida Panhandle and Alabama, and these conditions will gradually spread westward this morning and continue into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land producing 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move inland early Wednesday and move across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The tornado threat should increase and slowly spread inland the rest of today into Wednesday. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-15 11:15:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150914 CCB TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 16...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Corrected Key Messages 2 and 3 There has been little change overall in Sally's convective structure in both satellite and Doppler radar data. An eye has tried to close off several times this morning, but after less than 30 minutes the southern eyewall has eroded. Until just recently, the central pressure had been steady for the past several hours at 986 mb. However, the most recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance pass through Sally's center reported a dropsonde pressure of 984 mb and 13 kt winds, which equals a pressure of 983 mb. Maximum 700-mb flight-level winds observed have only been 63 kt and peak SFMR winds have been 58 kt. Also, reports from nearby oil rigs have dropped off significantly since yesterday are are now in the 40-50 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt. The initial motion estimate to 300/02 kt. After a brief jog due west, it appears that Sally has resumed a slow drift toward the west-northwest. Sally is embedded within weak steering flow based on 0000Z upper-air data indicating 500-mb heights of 5900 meters and slightly higher surrounding the cyclone from Florida northward into the Tennessee Valley and then westward into the central and southern Plains. This weak steering pattern is expected to persist for the next few days, with a weak mid-level trough forecast to move into the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday and Thursday, which will gradually lift Sally northward and then northeastward. Sally is forecast to merge with a frontal system by day 4 or 5. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and lies down the middle of the rather divergent model guidance envelope. Sally is now expected to remain in a moderate to high mid-to upper-level wind shear environment. Ina addition, some modest upwelling is likely occurring in the inner-core region based a SST decrease of nearly 2 deg F during the past 24 hours based on data from buoy 42012. After the Sally makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sally should become post-tropical in 3 days or less. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 36 hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected today within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in some of these areas. 4. Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers is forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across inland portions of Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 28.9N 88.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 29.2N 88.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 29.9N 88.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 30.6N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0600Z 31.4N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/1800Z 32.2N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 32.8N 84.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 33.2N 81.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-15 11:05:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150905 CCA TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 16...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Corrected initial intensity from 80 kt to 75 kt There has been little change overall in Sally's convective structure in both satellite and Doppler radar data. An eye has tried to close off several times this morning, but after less than 30 minutes the southern eyewall has eroded. Until just recently, the central pressure had been steady for the past several hours at 986 mb. However, the most recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance pass through Sally's center reported a dropsonde pressure of 984 mb and 13 kt winds, which equals a pressure of 983 mb. Maximum 700-mb flight-level winds observed have only been 63 kt and peak SFMR winds have been 58 kt. Also, reports from nearby oil rigs have dropped off significantly since yesterday are are now in the 40-50 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt. The initial motion estimate to 300/02 kt. After a brief jog due west, it appears that Sally ahs resumed a slow drift toward the west-northwest. Sally is embedded within weak steering flow based on 0000Z upper-air data indicating 500-mb heights of 5900 meters and slightly higher surrounding the cyclone from Florida northward into the Tennessee Valley and then westward into the central and southern Plains. This weak steering pattern is expected to persist for the next few days, with a weak mid-level trough expected to move into the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday and Thursday, which will gradually lift Sally northward and then northeastward. Sally is forecast to merge with a frontal system by day 4 or 5. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and lies down the middle of the rather divergent model guidance envelope. Sally is now expected to remain in a moderate to high mid-to upper-level wind shear environment. Ina addition, some modest upwelling is likely occurring in the inner-core region based a SST decrease of nearly 2 deg F during the past 24 hours based on data from buoy 42012. After the Sally makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sally should become post-tropical in 3 days or less. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 36 hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected early Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in some of these areas. 4. Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers is forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across inland portions of Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 28.9N 88.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 29.2N 88.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 29.9N 88.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 30.6N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0600Z 31.4N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/1800Z 32.2N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 32.8N 84.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 33.2N 81.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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