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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-15 10:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 672 WTPZ21 KNHC 150831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 120.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 120.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 120.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.0N 123.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.9N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.1N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 120.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2020-09-15 10:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 350 FONT12 KNHC 150830 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 34
2020-09-15 10:30:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150830 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...PAULETTE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.0N 60.5W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. Paulette is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days. Paulette is then forecast to slow down and turn southeastward by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 34
2020-09-15 10:30:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150830 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 60.5W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 130SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 60.5W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.9N 56.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.3N 50.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.7N 44.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 46.0N 35.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 44.9N 34.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 140SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 41.6N 33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 38.7N 32.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 15A
2020-09-15 07:56:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150556 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...SALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE JOGGING WESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 88.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Navarre Florida * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 88.0 West. Sally is moving slowly toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow west-northwestward motion is expected to resume later this morning. A northward turn is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana later today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area tonight or Wednesday morning. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. However, some re-strengthening is forecast early to occur later today, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A NOAA C-MAN observing station on Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h), while a buoy just south of Dauphin Island recently reported a wind gust to 59 mph (94 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Dauphin Island to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay an Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-2 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the warning area across Alabama, and these conditions will gradually spread westward this morning. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Outer bands of Sally could produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula through tonight. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The threat for tornadoes should increase and slowly spread inland during the day today. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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