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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-15 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150833 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 30.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 30.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 29.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.0N 31.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.7N 33.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.2N 35.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.5N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 38.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 30.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-15 10:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Karina has continued to become a little better organized tonight with a concentrated area of deep convection near and over the estimated low-level center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, and the initial wind speed is nudged up to 50 kt based on that data. Karina is approaching the 26 C isotherm, and it should be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next several days. These less favorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier and more stable air mass should promote gradual weakening beginning by tonight, and Karina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 60 hours. In addition to the cool waters and dry air, an increase in southerly shear should cause the remnant low to dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at 10 kt. A continued northwestward motion on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge is expected for the next couple of days. After that time, a turn to the west and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as the weak and shallow system moves in the low-level flow. The initial 34-kt wind radii have been reduced based on partial ASCAT overpasses. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 19.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 22.0N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 24.0N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 23.9N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 23.1N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-09-15 10:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 150832 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 125W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 10
2020-09-15 10:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150831 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...KARINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 120.6W ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 120.6 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but gradual weakening should begin tonight. Karina is forecast to become a remnant low in two or three days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 34
2020-09-15 10:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 671 WTNT42 KNHC 150831 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Paulette has generally changed little overnight. The hurricane still has a central dense overcast feature with an eye occasionally evident in satellite images. Convective banding remains well organized, especially to the north of the center. The satellite intensity estimates range from 77 to 102 kt and based on that data, the initial intensity is again held at 90 kt. The hurricane could strengthen slightly in the short term due to a combination of baroclinic influences from an approaching trough and relatively warm water beneath the cyclone. However, a steady weakening trend should commence on Wednesday when Paulette moves over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind shear. These factors should ultimately lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete by day 3. However, some of the guidance suggests that this could occur up to a day sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and GFS models. Paulette continues to pick up speed, and the latest initial motion estimate is northeastward at 17 kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward even more during the next couple of days as it becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After a few days, however, Paulette will likely turn southeastward and then southward as it moves in the flow on the west side of a cut off deep-layer low. There are some differences in the models on how sharply Paulette turns southward, but they generally agree on the overall scenario. The NHC track forecast lies roughly between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 37.0N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 38.9N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 41.3N 50.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 43.7N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 46.0N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 44.9N 34.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z 41.6N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0600Z 38.7N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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