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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-15 04:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150239 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Karina may not have reached its peak after all. The northeasterly vertical wind shear appears to have eased a bit, allowing the dense cirrus overcast from the central convection to fully obscure the low level cloud center. The cyclone also appears to be better organized than 24 hours ago. As a result, most of the Dvorak intensity estimates have increased, with ADT up to 39 kt, and PHFO and TAFB indicating 55 kt. SAB was unchanged from the 6 hours ago at 35 kt. Based on a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas radii have also been adjusted based on guidance from TAFB. Moderate shear should continue to affect Karina for another 12 to 24 hours. The shear is forecast to weaken after that, but by then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea surface temperatures. There is still a narrow window for additional intensification, but most of the guidance holds the intensity for another 12 to 24 hours, with gradual weakening occurring afterward. The forecast holds Karina at 45 kt for 24 hours, followed by weakening to post-tropical remnant low status by 72 hours. This is close to the HCCA guidance. The initial motion for this advisory is 310/10 kt. Karina is forecast to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through 60 to 72 hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep convection ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level flow. The objective guidance is tightly packed through around 60 hours, with variations occurring thereafter regarding when the southwestward turn will occur. The forecast track is close to the previous forecast and closely follows the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.1N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 23.3N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 23.8N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 23.5N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-15 04:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150237 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 119.8W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 119.8 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next 24 hours, with gradual weakening thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kodama
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 33
2020-09-15 04:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150235 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Paulette's cloud pattern has degraded during the past few hours, and recent microwave imagery suggests that the eyewall of the hurricane was at least for a time open to the south. A larger mostly closed ring of convection was also present, indicating that Paulette may be going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite-based current intensity estimates range from 65 to 102 kt, but have generally decreased since the last advisory. The intensity estimate remains 90 kt at this time, but there is a high degree of uncertainty in this assessment. Assuming Paulette can maintain a well-defined inner core, either through the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle or redevelopment of convection in the southern eyewall, it should have an opportunity to strengthen during the next 24 h. The intensity guidance is not quite as bullish anymore, so the intensity forecast has been lowered slightly, but it is still above the intensity consensus through 36 h. Paulette could begin to lose tropical characteristics around that time and rapid weakening is expected as a result. The NHC forecast conservatively shows Paulette becoming fully post-tropical in 72 h, but there are indications from the GFS simulated satellite imagery that it could complete its transition sooner. Paulette has turned northeastward and is accelerating, as predicted, with an initial motion estimate of 35/15 kt. The system will likely race generally east-northeastward for the next few days. A slower motion and eventual turn southeastward or even southward is expected near the end of the week when the cyclone encounters a large cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic, however it should be post-tropical by that time. The track guidance remains in excellent overall agreement overall, and NHC forecast is based heavily on TVCN and HCCA. The wind radii analysis and forecast were updated based on data from an ASCAT-A overpass at 0050 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 35.7N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 37.4N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 39.8N 54.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 42.3N 48.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 44.6N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 46.0N 37.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 45.8N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0000Z 43.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0000Z 39.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 33
2020-09-15 04:35:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150235 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...PAULETTE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.7N 62.3W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 62.3 West. Paulette is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected for the next couple of days. Paulette is then forecast to slow down and turn eastward by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is possible Tuesday and early Wednesday. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday and will likely continue through the rest of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of the United States through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2020-09-15 04:35:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 150235 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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